
By Anirban Basu, Sage Policy Group
Commercial Real Estate Market Presently Stable
Undoubtedly, many stakeholders in the Baltimore area commercial real estate market are disappointed that significant improvement in the marketplace remains elusive. After all, the economy has been in recovery since last summer and the Baltimore area has been adding jobs since March 2010. With all the discussion regarding base realignment and cyber-security, one suspects that expectations have been raised.
Though it is true that market conditions have barely improved, at least they are not deteriorating. The direct vacancy rate in the Baltimore area office market stood at 15.3 percent during the second quarter of 2010, a fractional improvement from the 15.4 percent level at year-end 2009.
At 12.3 percent, the northern portion of the metropolitan area, which includes Towson, the I-83 Corridor, Harford County, and a handful of other submarkets, boasts the lowest direct vacancy rate (vacancy with sublet is 12.7 percent). Six months ago, direct vacancy in the north stood at nearly 12.9 percent. The northern portion of the metropolitan area was also responsible for fully 50 percent of net office space absorption during the first half of 2010 and is therefore easily enjoying the most vigorous market recovery to date. It may also be worth noting that of the MacKenzie-defined regions, the northern metropolitan area is associated with the lowest average asking rents.
The submarket associated with the least vigorous office market recovery is Baltimore's City Center. At the end of 2009, direct vacancy in the CBD stood at 18.1 percent. As of the second quarter of 2010, direct vacancy was approaching 20 percent and vacancy with sublet was in excess of 23 percent. Net office space absorption was positive, but minuscule, at 5,334 square feet (sf) year-to-date. That compares unfavorably with +43,700 sf in the remaining portions of Baltimore City, +94,790 sf in the southern metropolitan area (e.g., BWI, Columbia, Annapolis) and +137,081 sf in the northern metro area.

Notable Transactions
Lease
| Location | Submarket | Tenant | Amount Leased SF |
| 100 Light St | City Center | Ober/Kaler | 92,778 |
| 3120 Lord Baltimore Dr | Baltimore County West | Computer Sciences Corporation | 69,807 (r) |
| 209 W. Fayette St | City Center | US Department of Veterans Affairs | 63,824 |
| 4696 Millennium Dr | Harford County | ManTech International Corporation | 63,000 |
| 10 E. Baltimore St | City Center | Maryland Worker's Compensation Commission | 52,360 (r) |
| 7229 Parkway Dr | BWI | Computer Sciences Corporation | 42,681 (r) (exp) |
| 11350 McCormick Rd | I-83 Corridor | Practice Management Pantners, Inc. | 33,427 (r) |
| 10 N. Park Dr | I-83 Corridor | Hewitt Associates | 31,945 |
| 855 N. Wolfe St | Baltimore City North | The Lieber Institute for Brain Development | 30,000 |
| 210 Research Blvd | Harford County | Northrop Grumman | 27,472 |
| 2691 Technology Dr | BWI | Northrop Grumman | 26,149 |
| 7556 Teague Rd | BWI | ITT | 22,575 |
Sale
| Location | Submarket | Price | PSF | Building Size SF |
| 175 Admiral Cochrane Dr | Annapolis | $10,000,000 | $178.72 | 55,954 |
| 333 Cassell Dr | Baltimore City East | $29,250,000 | $288.50 | 101,386 |
| 3910 Keswick Rd | Baltimore City North | $14,795,000 | $32.02 | 462,000 |
| 700 Geipe Rd | Baltimore County West | $10,400,000 | $129.53 | 80,293 |
| 108 Forbes St | Annapolis | $3,750,000 | $252.63 | 14,844 |

* All information furnished regarding property for sale, rent, exchange or financing is from sources deemed reliable. No representation is made as to the accuracy thereof and all such information is submitted subject to errors, omissions, or changes in conditions, prior sale, lease or withdrawal without notice. All information should be verified to the satisfaction of the person relying thereon. Portions of the base statistics are from CoStar Property data. Data as of 06/2010.
| Number of Buildings | 1,222 |
| Market Size | 74,153,824 sf |
| Change Since Last | |||
| Current | 6 Mos | YR | |
| Direct Vacancy | 15.35% | ||
| Vacancy W/ Sublet | 16.55% | ||
| Net Absorption | 315,757 | ||
| Avg. Asking Rate | $22.81 | ||
Above: Most areas experienced some degree of positive absorption. The effects of BRAC are evident in both the Harford County and BWI submarkets.
Vacancy & Rental Rates By RegionAbove: Despite a decline in rents for many areas, Baltimore’s Southern Metro Market continues to maintain higher rents than the rest of the region.
Historical Vacancy Rates
Click on Graphs to Enlarge
Above: After dropping to five year lows in late 2006 and rising steadily since Total Market vacancy is showing some signs of stabilizing. Baltimore City’s vacancy is rising to unprecedented levels, while the Northern Metro Market, which has a limited supply of inventory, is feeling the benefits of BRAC.